Candidates
Explore a candidate, then make your own projection.
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About the projections
A point estimate, with room for your judgment.
The system projects future fantasy points under the league’s scoring rules, using research checked November 5, 2026. It combines prediction-market signals with explicit campaign scenarios and editorial estimates. It is an experimental scouting model, not a calibrated election forecast. Small differences should not decide a pick.
Nomination, presidency and VP-selection inputs are editorial estimates informed by available Polymarket and Kalshi prices. Some later prices were last trades or lacked complete bid/ask and activity information, so they are not treated as equivalent to the earlier screened midpoints. These are unconditional estimates: the model does not multiply them by the chance of running again. Entry estimates weigh announcement markets, direct statements and campaign activity.
Polls measure preferences when fielded; markets price different future outcomes. Recent Harvard CAPS/Harris, Echelon and Focaldata surveys and New Hampshire polling are shown separately. The latest accessible national surveys were conducted before Election Day. Electorates and candidate lists differ; missing names are not zero support. Fundraising, early-state activity, prior campaigns and direct statements inform the editorial assumptions. Current achievements earn no retroactive points.
Campaign templates and calculation
Each full campaign template is scored first, then weighted by its chance. This preserves vote caps and diminishing contest-win points. “Competitive campaign” means the chance of that path conditional on entering and losing the nomination.
| Primary path | Debates | Votes | Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Early exit | 1 | 200,000 | 0 |
| Competitive loss | 3 | 2.5 million | 3 |
| Nominee | 3 | 5 million | 30 |
All three paths include a qualifying launch. Early exits include the post-withdrawal vote and endorsement bonuses. Competitive losses add Actual Constituency and a convention speech; the speech contribution excludes eventual ticket nominees. Nominees include Actual Constituency, Hostile Takeover and a narrow contest win. These are stylized bundles, not promises that every campaign follows the template. Hostile Takeover assumes an eligible rival is rostered.
First Application and Outside Hire are weighted by the chance of running, using each profile’s eligibility checks; unresolved bonus eligibility earns no projected bonus. Polling milestones are separate editorial probabilities of meeting the full two-pollster rule in the future, including before a launch.
Ticket milestones are added separately. The default assumes a 50% chance of victory for a VP nominee, a 50% chance of a popular-vote win for a presidential nominee, and a 90% chance of a general-election debate for a ticket member. These are generic assumptions. Presidential victory uses the market-informed input instead.
The breakdown shows the contribution of every scoring rule. Whole-point totals are rounded for display; rank uses the unrounded sum. A competitive non-nominee can still be valuable: under these rules, the historical archive gives Sanders 188 points in 2016 and Haley 129.6 in 2024.
Sources, uncertainty and your overrides
The two-sided market baseline shown in each profile was collected October 23, 2026, around 10:20 a.m. Eastern. Later prices were checked where available, but many lacked comparable spreads, candidate-level activity or a verified last pre-election observation. Last trades and wide or stale quotes are weaker signals; missing prices are not zero. Quote retrieval time is not necessarily the time of the last trade.
Entry and campaign-depth estimates are explained per candidate. These are assumptions, not measured probabilities. The model caps presidential victory at nomination and VP nomination at the remaining non-presidential-nominee chance. The November review scaled the combined presidency estimates and Democratic VP estimates to 95% each, leaving 5% for candidates outside the board. Your personal choices do not reweight other candidates.
Market contracts are not identical to FFC rules. Entry contracts use a January 1, 2028 deadline; nomination and election contracts can treat replacements and certification differently. The model assumes an ordinary primary-to-nomination route. Late replacements, contested conventions, party changes and detailed state-by-state paths are not modeled. Revisit these defaults as new evidence arrives and before the auction. Candidates who launch before the scoring window do not earn a new declaration bonus afterward.
In your projection, “Happens” makes an outcome certain and “Doesn’t happen” rules it out. Dependent estimates update: a certain primary entry conditions nomination and election chances on entry; a certain nomination conditions presidential victory on nomination. A presidential win implies a campaign and nomination. A VP nominee can still have run a losing primary campaign. Choosing no primary run rules out the presidential path in this model, while preserving VP and polling possibilities.
Other candidates are not reweighted when you make a choice. Your board compares independent candidate scenarios, rather than predicting a single internally consistent election. Sign in to save a private board across browsers. Without signing in, edits stay in this browser. Restoring System removes your choices. Account boards and compatible browser-only edits preserve explicit choices when research changes; unedited conditions use the refreshed defaults.
“No launch verified” means this review did not verify an announcement. It does not establish that none exists. A declined presidential run may leave a VP path. Inclusion does not imply intent to run. Research and projections are updated manually.
Eligibility and bonus checks
This is a starting list. You can draft an eligible person who isn’t listed, including someone who hasn’t announced or held office. The commissioner confirms eligibility for the office sought, party, and home state before the pick. Only qualifying Democratic or Republican activity scores. Resolve ambiguous classifications before draft night where possible; freeze home states before the draft.
First Application requires a first-ever presidential campaign in any party; an exploratory committee alone does not disqualify someone. Outside Hire requires no prior elected public office or state/federal Cabinet-level role. “Potential” reflects the reviewed history, with final verification at launch. These bonuses require a qualifying presidential launch after the draft; a VP selection alone earns neither.